IS AFRICA REALLY RISING?

‘Is Africa really rising?’ was the title of a 10-day, on-line Economist debate that ended on 22 March 2013. Despite the optimism over Africa now reaching fever pitch, with global investors salivating at the continent's prospects, the 200 debaters were not so bullish. While 58 per cent voted Yes, Africa really is rising, 42 per cent voted No, Africa is not rising and will not fulfil its ambitions. This debate ended several weeks of intense reporting on Africa by the Economist and its sister newspaper, the Financial Times and the FT’s on-line publication ‘This is Africa’, each of them generating as many questions as answers. The end of the Economist’s historic debate, with its cautiously optimistic outcome, can also be seen as the end of an exciting chapter in the continent’s post-independence history – The beginning of Africa's rise.


By the afternoon of Tuesday 12 March, the first day of the debate, there was no sign of the green economy in Africa being discussed. I tried to introduce the subject with the following comment:

Dear Sir,

The rise of Africa as the final frontier for investment comes at a time when the world faces multiple crises: economic, environmental and social. How Africa rises and how the continent’s remarkable growth story unfolds will have a decisive impact on how these crises resolve. All eyes therefore are on Africa. There is increasing recognition that the only viable route for all countries to deliver social inclusion, ecological stability and sustainable and resilient economic growth is through a global green economy. At the UN’s Rio+20 ‘Earth Summit’ in June 2012 the green economy was the main theme.

My response to the critical question “is Africa really rising?” is yes...but only if Africa explores new development models based on its green growth potential. As we all know, this is not the first time Africa has been seen as a continent of hope and while there is no doubt that “this time is different” unfortunately so much is still the same. There is increasing concern that business-as-usual, or the old ‘brown’ economy which is high carbon, resource intensive, ecologically degrading and socially divisive, is creating the same hidden costs in Africa as in the past. Only this time at a faster rate, on greater scales and with far more at stake. While optimism is rising across the continent so too is inequality, just one of the brown economy’s many hidden costs, which already threatens Africa’s future.

Since 1990 and the failure of the post-colonial development model, Africans have been steadily building foundations for sustainability. What is clearly different in Africa this time, but which is receiving very little attention, is the continent’s emerging green economies as a means to cope with the enormous challenges ahead, while delivering sustainable and resilient growth for the 21st century. Leading Africans from Meles Zenawi, late prime minister of Ethiopia, to Kofi Anan, former UN secretary-general, and Donald Kaberuka, president of the African development bank, have been trying to get the message across that ‘green growth will be critical to Africa’s future’, but very few people seem to be listening. Their plea was confirmed in Africa’s Consensus Statement to Rio+20, yet this document, the culmination of 20 years green progress in Africa, was virtually ignored by the rest of the world.

Everything is in place for Africa to take the lead in the global green economy. Africa’s least developed 'brown' economies are now Africa’s strategic advantage. As the global economy lurches from one crisis to the next with the time between crises getting shorter, Africa’s green growth can play a major role in the ‘great rebalancing’. As the debates rage, reports mount and the world’s Afro-optimists gather at this year’s record number of Africa summits and conferences, the big challenge is: how to put the green economy into Africa’s growth story?

If Africa’s green growth story is recognised then my answer to the question is a resounding YES Africa is rising.

END OF COMMENT


Although five readers recommended this comment it was by no means enough to encourage anyone else to debate the green economy. For this reason on Wednesday 20 I entered another comment:
 
Dear Sir,

In 1998 Ryszard Kapuscinski (1932-2007), the Polish journalist who probably knew the African’s Africa more than any other foreigner, wrote: “The continent is too large to describe. It is a veritable ocean, a separate planet, a varied and immensely rich cosmos. Only with the greatest simplification, for the sake of convenience, can we say ‘Africa.’ In reality, except as a geographical appellation, Africa does not exist.”

In this context it seems absurd to debate whether Africa is rising. Africa is larger than the USA, China, India and Australia combined. Covering 30 million km2, with one billion people speaking 2,000 languages in 55 nation states, Africa is the oldest, most diverse, most challenging and least understood region on earth. A much more realistic debate would be to look at regional trade blocs and ask if they are rising.

It seems equally absurd to talk about “Africa as the new Asia” or “African lions snapping at the heels of Asian tigers” when Asia’s future is far from clear. China’s former premier, Wen Jiabao, was at great pains to tell us that China’s economy is “unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable”. These hidden costs of growth in Asia’s most successful economy could be greatly magnified in Africa’s harsh and unpredictable conditions, particularly where African countries are following the “China Model”.

Economists look at GDP growth and conclude “Africa is rising”, but GDP tells us nothing about sustainability. China is simply chasing the west on an unsustainable economic development path which is creating un-payable debts and is destroying the planet. Instead of trying to “catch up” with the others towards self-destruction Africans must develop their own models of growth from which we can all learn. Only then could I agree that Africa is rising.

Africans could rise and fulfil their potential if they are given support in their green economy, a critical subject that has hardly entered this debate. For the past five years leading Africans have been trying to tell the world that green growth is crucial to Africa's future, but very few seem to be listening. Africa’s Consensus Statement to the UN’s Rio+20 Earth Summit in June 2012 made it clear that the green economy is the only viable route to Africa's sustainability and resilience. Unfortunately this document, the culmination of 20 years’ green progress in Africa, was virtually ignored by the rest of the world.

I hope that as this exciting debate enters its final stages more participants will come forward to put the green economy into Africa’s remarkable growth story. If so, this “varied and immensely rich cosmos” could truly rise in ways that will surprise and benefit us all.


END OF COMMENT


This comment also failed to generate any interest in the green economy. This, therefore, is a post-debate response to the question: IS AFRICA REALLY RISING?

Dear Sir,

Africa is most definitely rising and if the rise is well-managed we can all benefit. But....

Although I haven’t read all 200 comments in this historic debate, it is fairly safe to say that the green economy, which African leaders have been telling us is the only viable path towards sustainable and resilient growth, was not discussed. A unique opportunity has therefore been lost. Much of the debate focussed on important issues that were debated in smaller circles 40 years ago during the post-colonial boom - infrastructure, industrialisation, employment, governance, demography etc. Of course we know much more now, this time is certainly different and the debate on Africa is now global. So, even without any mention of ‘green’ in the debate, what was discussed provides an excellent and optimistic basis for the next chapter in Africa’s remarkable growth story, a chapter based on the green economy.

For this green chapter to be written we must begin by listening to what the continent’s leaders have to say. They, more than anyone, are aware that Africa’s huge potential is threatened by multiple forces beyond their control. They, more than anyone, know that an economic transformation is urgently needed. If the ‘perfect storm’ of converging crises in water, food and energy is to hit the planet in less than 20 years, it will be hitting Africa first and hardest. Vast regions across the continent already feel its force. In an increasingly volatile global economy full of ‘known unknowns’ and ‘unknown unknowns’ Africa’s leaders know, for sure, their countries, economies and people are the most vulnerable and least protected.

This is Africa’s 3rd era of hope in 50 years and this time is different enough for the economic transformation that African leaders are calling for to take place. The skills, talent and ambition are there. All that is known for Africa to become a frontier for green investment is known. The necessary transformation begins by exploring Africa’s 55 green economies and building on them for the 21st century. Only a few years ago Africa was seen as ‘the greatest imbalance on earth’. With green investment Africa can now play a pivotal role in ‘the great rebalancing’.

But the old ‘brown’ economy, or business-as-usual, is still the most dominant force on the continent and it is expanding fast. Africa’s fragile green foundations, built up over the past 20 years, are threatened by the current boom in 20th century thinking, planning, technologies and economics, the most potent symbols of which are the new generation of mines, dams, farms and sugar enterprises, a repeat of past efforts to ‘develop’ only this time on mega-scales with mega-hidden costs to match. Instead of becoming the first green frontier for green investment there is a great danger Africa could become the last frontier for the brown.

In January, Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said that 2013 would be a ‘make or break year’ for the global economy. If this turns out to be true, 2013 will be a make or break year for Africa. Decisions made today will have repercussions reaching well into the future. The Economist has opened up new ground in Africa with this historic debate. I hope the next will explore how to put the green economy into Africa’s growth story. I hope it is soon. Time is running out.

Thank you.

END OF COMMENT

PUTTING THE GREEN ECONOMY INTO AFRICA'S GROWTH STORY

A CALL TO ACTION

‘Africa is a green field for investment because it is the least developed region on earth’ Meles Zenawi, late prime minister of Ethiopia, September 2009

The rise of Africa as the final frontier for investment comes at a time when the world faces multiple crises: economic, environmental and social. How Africa’s growth story unfolds will have a decisive impact on how these crises resolve. There is increasing recognition that the only viable route to social inclusion, ecological stability and sustainable and resilient economic growth is through a global green economy.

This is an urgent call to action to put the green economy at the heart of Africa’s growth story so that Africa’s rise will benefit as many Africans as possible and deliver the green growth the global economy needs. The initial focus of this call to action is the major opinion-forming and decision-making forums taking place in 2013, including international Africa summits and conferences as well as the major print, digital and social media.

This is not the first time the world has looked to Africa as a continent of hope, and while there is no doubt that ‘this time is different’, unfortunately so much is still the same. There is increasing concern that business-as-usual, or the 'brown' economy, which is high carbon, resource intensive, ecologically degrading and socially divisive, is creating the same hidden costs in Africa as in the past. Only this time at a faster rate, on greater scales and with far more at stake. While optimism is rising across the continent so too is inequality, just one of the brown economy’s many hidden costs, which already threatens Africa's future.

With few exceptions, the green economy is absent from the agenda of this year’s major Africa summits and conferences. The majority of the media’s glowing reports on Africa’s growth prospects do not mention the green economy. Most optimistic Africa bloggers have yet to realise its importance and potential. And yet each meeting, article, film, blog post and tweet in what could be a pivotal year for this vast continent is an opportunity to promote the green economy as fundamental to Africa’s 21^st century growth story.

This point was thrown into focus by Africa’s Consensus Statement to the UN’s Rio+20 ‘Earth Summit’ in June 2012, where the need for a global green economy as a tool for achieving sustainable development was the main theme. Unfortunately this document, the culmination of 20 years’ green progress in Africa, was virtually ignored by the rest of the world. 

This call to action is to urge sponsors, panellists, participants and commentators on Africa summits, as well as journalists, film makers, broadcasters and bloggers to include perspectives on the green economy in their presentations, reports, and articles in order to raise awareness and enable a broader picture of Africa’s ‘green field’ to emerge.

As part of this process we are developing an online resource to bring together information, knowledge and different perspectives on the green economy in Africa. Coordinated with the growing number of related initiatives, this will include examples of the green economy in practice and the drivers and challenges of implementation across different sectors in Africa’s 55 countries. It will also include directories of major opinion-forming and decision-making forums specifically promoting the green economy in Africa and elsewhere. 

Accelerating the journey towards a green economy in this final frontier will provide a multi-win solution to Africa’s challenges from which we can all learn: sustained growth with lower carbon emissions; more efficient resource use; less pollution; re-valued ecological services; more jobs; less poverty; greater equality; less conflict.... In a green economy in Africa there will be new models, new technologies, new measures, new accounting systems, new institutions and new laws adapted to the changing conditions of the world’s most challenging continent. In a green economy in Africa, to borrow from a recent global advertising campaign, ‘investors will need to be explorers’.

Africa’s lack of brown development is now Africa’s strategic advantage. Over the past 20 years the foundations for a green economic take-off in Africa have been laid. Everything Africa needs to lead the way and become a green growth engine is ready. The physical and virtual networks and connections are up and running. The technologies have been developed. The skills, talent and ambition are there. The demographic dividend could not be greater. The knowledge and information are at our fingertips. African governments and their partners have prepared the route. The private sector is exploring ways forward. Trillions of dollars worldwide are sitting idle or spinning in the global roulette wheel: investors are saying, ‘where can I put my money?’

Optimists say that Africa could add $3 trillion to the global economy in the next decade and be worth $29 trillion by 2050. If so, it is in everybody’s long-term interest that as much investment as possible goes into a green economy for the 21st century rather than into a brown economy that perpetuates the 20th. For the sake of the global economy, the planet and all its inhabitants Africa’s ‘green field for investment’ must be kept green.

For 500 years the fate of Africa has been decided by outsiders. If Africa is to achieve its great potential in ways that will benefit us all, Africans must lead. What was said by departing colonialists in the 1960s applies today more than ever: ‘the fate of us all is bound up with Africa’. 

WHAT NEXT?

If you would like to support this call to action to ‘Put the Green Economy into Africa’s Growth Story’ please take a moment to send an e-mail to: greenexplorersafrica@gmail.com and say YES.  Please include your name, country of residence and any other information or comments you might like to add. These will be included (with your permission) in a new post - Supporters of the Call to Action - and on our website in due course. Please forward this to anyone you think might be interested. Thank you.

A GREEN AID STIMULUS FOR AFRICA

On 2 March the UK’s Observer published a special report on the legacy of the 2005, G8 Gleneagles debt-relief for developing countries and the concurrent Make Poverty History campaign. This report included articles by former UK prime minister, Tony Blair – “Aid has transformed Africa. Now is the time for growth and governance” and activist Bob Geldof - “Stimulus for an entire continent – and Tony Blair deserves the credit”.
 

I responded to this by writing a letter to the Editor which was published on 10 March. Unfortunately the letter (print and on-line version) was so heavily edited it missed the point I was trying to make that a green aid stimulus could play a major role in ensuring Africa’s remarkable growth story is sustainable and resilient. The letter was the second in three under the title: “The solution to Africa’s woes lies with Africans, not the west”. The title itself conveys a different message to the one I was trying to project. 

 

ORIGINAL LETTER TO THE OBSERVER

Tony Blair and Bob Geldof did a good job of showing how the G8 Gleneagles Summit and Make Poverty History campaign in 2005 made a decisive impact on Africa’s fortunes  As the UK prepares to host the G8 in June 2013 and the trade versus aid debate is hotting up, it is timely to be reminded how important well-directed aid can be and will be in the future.

However, both authors missed an historic opportunity to explore Africa’s green economy as the only viable way to keep the positive momentum going and therefore fulfill the continent’s vast potential. Africa's rise coincides with unprecedented challenges from climate change, environmental degradation, biodiversity loss, inequality and rapid population growth within still fragile democracies. Add to this a volatile global economy and increased competition for diminishing resources and Africa’s continued growth is by no means assured. (End of print version) This was thrown into focus in Africa’s Consensus Statement to the UN’s Rio+20 ‘Earth Summit’ in June 2012, where the need for a green economy as a tool for achieving sustainable development was the main theme. Unfortunately this document, the culmination of 20 years’ green progress in Africa, was virtually ignored by the rest of the world. (End of on-line version)

With business-as-usual, or the old ‘brown economy’, still the dominant force in Africa and expanding fast, African leaders have made it clear that a low carbon, resource efficient, environmentally responsible and socially inclusive green economy is the only way for the world’s most challenging continent to develop resilience and supply the global economy with the long-term growth it needs. If Africa is to be a sustainable engine of global growth the engine must be green.

In a rare compliment from one former Prime Minister to the incumbent from another party, Mr Blair gives great credit to “the British people and David Cameron’s government that even in these circumstances they have kept up their support for Africa and development”. With the G8 Summit approaching fast, Mr Cameron has a narrowing window of opportunity to put the green economy into Africa’s remarkable growth story. Unless sustainability is at the core of discussions on Africa, the continent’s current boom, driven by the unsustainable brown economy, could be another false dawn, this time to the detriment of us all.

In January, Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said 2013 would be a “make or break year for the global economy”. If so it could be a make or break year for Africa. To turn the tide from business-as-usual in Africa to unusual business based on green growth requires exceptional action at the highest levels inspired by exceptional partnerships.    

If 2005 was the year Blair-backed debt-relief acted as a “stimulus for an entire continent”, 2013 could be the year when a Cameron-backed green aid package acts as the green stimulus Africa now needs. If history was made in 2005 it can be made again in 2013. A Tory/Lib-Dem coalition PM building on the work of a former Labour PM could be the type of exceptional partnership Africa and the world needs for the 21st century. If this is to be “Africa’s Moment”, the moment for a rethink of aid is now.

 

WHAT IS THE GREEN ECONOMY?

The laws of physics will not change, so the rules of economy must - Oliver Greenfield, Convenor, Green Economy Coalition

It is becoming increasingly clear that a global green economy is the only viable route to a sustainable future and is arguably the most important issue of our times. This was made clear at the United Nations Rio+20 ‘Earth Summit’ in June 2012 where the green economy emerged as the main theme. Yet of all the critical issues surrounding our future it is one of the least understood. It occupies a similar position as globalisation did 20 years ago, an abstract, complex and controversial concept. How is it valued? What is it worth? Who measures it? How can it help solve the world’s multiple crises? 

Some see the green economy as a luxury in our economically troubled times. Others say it is an opportunistic manipulation by global capitalism to ‘monetise’ and control the planet’s dwindling natural resources. Yet more and more see it as man's most powerful idea that will save the planet, an idea whose time has come.

There are many definitions. The United Nations Environment Program has developed a working definition of a green economy as one that results in "improved human well-being and social equity, while significantly reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities." In its simplest expression, UNEP adds, a green economy can be thought of as one which is low carbon, resource efficient and socially inclusive.

On a more concrete level one factor of the evolving global green economy is that it strives to account for the externalities or ‘hidden costs’ – ecological, social and economic - of growth measured by Gross Domestic Product, a flawed accounting system which tells us nothing about sustainability. The green economy is based on long-term projections and uses different measurements from established systems. It is transparent, creates a level playing field for all stakeholders and is our surest route to sustainability and resilience.

By contrast, the dominant ‘brown’ economy, while bringing enormous benefits to humanity over the past 200 years, does not account for externalities such as global warming, resource depletion, environmental degradation, rising sea levels, biodiversity loss, pollution, inequality, insecurity, economic volatility etc. The global brown economy is high carbon, resource intensive, environmentally degrading and socially divisive. It is short-term, speculative, opaque, irresponsible and unsustainable, which means it cannot last. We have now reached a point where the hidden costs of growth measured by GDP are beginning to outweigh the benefits and diminishing returns are setting in.

With the world lurching from one crisis to the next and the time between crises getting shorter, it is clear that a rapid and sustained expansion of the global green economy is essential if we are to avoid a 'perfect storm' of converging crises in water, food and energy in possibly less than 20 years. Hidden costs can no longer be ignored. Worse case scenarios must always be considered.

Africa is at the heart of this great controversy. Africa is where the perfect storm will hit first and hardest. Africa is where the brown economy is least developed. Africa is where the development and growth of the green economy can be easier, quicker and cheaper than the 'browner' economies of the advanced and emerging countries.What is more, Africa is rising and this time is different.

In the past 50 years Africa has experienced hope followed by disillusion, decline, rebirth, stagnation and finally in the last decade long-awaited growth. After 50 years of independence the final frontier is opening up to the world and ready for business. Africa is where best-case scenarios can now be considered, but only if Africa leads the world onto greener paths of production and consumption. The big question is whether business-as-usual will continue expanding the brown economy in Africa, or will unusual-business expand the green?

So small is the green economy, compared with the brown, that UNEP says it is 'a journey rather than a destination'. If so, we are just at the beginning of the greatest adventure since our ancestors walked out of Africa 100,000 years ago. The good news is that millions are already on the journey. In Africa their numbers are expanding rapidly. They are individuals, couples, families, companies, organisations and institutions. They are the green explorers in Africa.